Slovenia is both a destination country for many immigrants and a country of origin for emigrants leaving this country. There is evidence that migration affects many aspects of society, it influences the makeup of the population with regard to fertility, mortality and ageing. Through these effects there are powerful implications for age-related social services like pensions, health care or schools.

Young people migrating in considerable numbers, a process which is the focus of the YOUMIG project, affects ageing tendencies present in sending and receiving societies. Thus ageing societies and the consequential changes in public services are very relevant questions. Through the example of Slovenia, one of the countries in the YOUMIG partnership, we can dive into the complex connections between these concepts in detail.

Net migration saw a peak in Slovenia in the period of 2007 to 2009, particularly in 2007, when immigrants outnumbered emigrants by more than 18,500 (Figure 1). But already in 2010 net migration changed into negative territory: 521 more people left Slovenia than moved to the country. After 2010 net migration never reached such a high level again. Each year the number of emigrants exceeded the number of immigrants by around 500 persons, with the exception of 2011 when net migration amounted to 2000 persons, and 2014, when it was negative. In 2016, when 16,623 people immigrated to Slovenia and 15,572 emigrated, net migration was the highest since 2011, amounting to 1,051 persons.

Figure 1: Migration flow, Slovenia

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SI-STAT data portal.

Very volatile migration flows suggest that there is likely to be uncertainty in the future, too, since migration largely depends on economic and political circumstances that are very difficult to predict.

Migration also has a significant impact on the future population structure. Together with national statistical offices, Eurostat prepares population projections based on the assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and international migrations. The latest projections were prepared for the period 2015 to 2080. The most uncertain assumptions are those regarding migration flows, thus four scenarios including one depicting the total absence of migration have been drawn up:

1. a baseline scenario
2. a scenario with higher migration,
3. a scenario with lower migration and
4. a scenario with no migration.

The baseline scenario assumes positive net migration close to 4,200 persons in 2020, the scenario with higher migration assumes that immigrants will outnumber emigrants by more than 5,600, while the scenario with lower migration assumes that 2,800 more people will immigrate to Slovenia than emigrate from it. In addition to these scenarios, population projections assuming lower fertility and lower mortality are also under preparation, but their effect on the population structure is not so profound.

Population projections prove that migration affects the pace and extent of aging in Slovenia. In the next 62 years, the age structure of Slovenia's population is expected to change significantly. In 2015, the elderly (aged 65 or more) accounted for 17.9% of the population, and their share is projected to rise to nearly 31% in 2057 and stay near that level at 29% in 2080, taking the baseline scenario into account (Figure 2). Except for the zero net migration scenario (with the share of the elderly as high as 35% in 2057), the differences between migration scenarios do not seem dramatic.

Figure 2: Share of population aged 65+, Slovenia

Source: Eurostat database, population projections 2015.

Comparing the projected migration flows with actual data from the past, one may find the baseline scenario assumptions of net migration (close to 4,200 persons in 2020) very optimistic as such a high migration balance was recorded only in the period from 2005 to 2009. Moreover, from 2010 on, the actual rate of migration was much lower than assumed by the lower migration scenario in 2020. 

Migration influences society in other ways, too. Estimations of the cost of sustaining the Slovenian pension system in the long term[*] showed that the assumptions regarding migration have a significant relevance here. Under the basic demographic assumptions, keeping the current pension system unchanged results in an increase in pension costs from 9.4% of GDP in 2008 to around 13% in 2060. This increase would be due to the ageing of the population and an expected increase in the number of pensioners. Under the zero net migration assumption, pension system prospects are much worse: the costs of running the pension system would increase to almost 15% of GDP in 2060. These findings raise attention to the importance of migration as regards the sustainability pensions and other social security systems in an ageing society like Slovenia.

Article by  Nataša Kump (IER, Ljubljana)

[*] The estimation was completed using a dynamic microsimulation model developed by the Institute for Economic Research, Ljubljana.